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Sion II vs Chênois — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Sion II
Sion II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Chênois
Chênois
5/17/20251. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Stade d'Octodure

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sion II44%
×Draw23%
Chênois33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sion II
1.72
Chênois
1.45

Sion II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 86 away

creates per match

Sion II
1.83
Chênois
1.55

allows per match

Sion II
1.35
Chênois
1.60

finishing

Sion II+0.00on par
Chênois+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sion II ↓

Chênois →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sion II or draw
67%
Sion II or Chênois
77%
Draw or Chênois
56%

Winning margin

Sion II wins by 2+
23%
Chênois wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sion II 1+ goals
82%
Sion II 2+ goals
51%
Sion II 3+ goals
25%
Chênois 1+ goals
77%
Chênois 2+ goals
42%
Chênois 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sion II (draw refunded)
57%
Chênois (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sion II at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.35 · 60 matches

Chênois away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sion II attack 1.83 + Chênois defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.72

Chênois attack 1.55 + Sion II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sion II scores more
44%
level
23%
Chênois scores more
33%

Sion II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sion II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sion II vs Chênois

Chênois beat Sion II 2-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Stade d'Octodure in Martigny.