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Chênois vs Sion II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Chênois
Chênois
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sion II
Sion II
9/5/20251. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Stade des Trois-Chênes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Chênois45%
×Draw23%
Sion II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chênois
1.79
Sion II
1.46

Chênois creates 23% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 60 away

creates per match

Chênois
1.85
Sion II
1.60

allows per match

Chênois
1.32
Sion II
1.72

finishing

Chênois+0.00on par
Sion II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chênois ↓

Sion II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Chênois or draw
68%
Chênois or Sion II
77%
Draw or Sion II
55%

Winning margin

Chênois wins by 2+
24%
Sion II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chênois 1+ goals
83%
Chênois 2+ goals
53%
Chênois 3+ goals
26%
Sion II 1+ goals
77%
Sion II 2+ goals
43%
Sion II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Chênois (draw refunded)
59%
Sion II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chênois at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.32 · 87 matches

Sion II away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.72 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chênois attack 1.85 + Sion II defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sion II attack 1.60 + Chênois defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chênois scores more
45%
level
23%
Sion II scores more
32%

Chênois at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chênois will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Chênois 1–2 Sion II

Sion II beat Chênois 2-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on September 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stade des Trois-Chênes in Chêne-Bourg.