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Sinop Fc vs Operário MT — Matogrossense 2 2024

Sinop Fc
Sinop Fcadvanced
FT
2 – 1
Operário MT
Operário MT
6/9/2024Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · Quarter-finalsEstádio Municipal Massami Uriú

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sinop Fc51%
×Draw24%
Operário MT26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sinop Fc
1.75
Operário MT
1.17

Sinop Fc creates 50% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sinop Fc
1.50
Operário MT
1.71

allows per match

Sinop Fc
0.63
Operário MT
2.00

finishing

Sinop Fc+0.00on par
Operário MT+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sinop Fc ↓

Operário MT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sinop Fc or draw
74%
Sinop Fc or Operário MT
76%
Draw or Operário MT
49%

Winning margin

Sinop Fc wins by 2+
28%
Operário MT wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sinop Fc 1+ goals
83%
Sinop Fc 2+ goals
52%
Sinop Fc 3+ goals
25%
Operário MT 1+ goals
69%
Operário MT 2+ goals
33%
Operário MT 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sinop Fc (draw refunded)
67%
Operário MT (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sinop Fc at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Operário MT away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sinop Fc attack 1.50 + Operário MT defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Operário MT attack 1.71 + Sinop Fc defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sinop Fc scores more
51%
level
24%
Operário MT scores more
26%

Sinop Fc at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sinop Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Matogrossense 2: Sinop Fc 2–1 Operário MT

Sinop Fc beat Operário MT 2-1 in Matogrossense 2 on June 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Massami Uriú in Sinop, Mato Grosso.