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Operário MT vs Sinop Fc — Matogrossense 2 2024

Operário MT
Operário MT
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Sinop Fc
Sinop Fcadvanced
6/2/2024Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · Quarter-finalsEstádio Presidente Eurico Gaspar Dutra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Operário MT23%
×Draw25%
Sinop Fc52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Operário MT
0.97
Sinop Fc
1.61

Sinop Fc creates 66% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Operário MT
1.17
Sinop Fc
1.56

allows per match

Operário MT
1.67
Sinop Fc
0.78

finishing

Operário MT+0.00on par
Sinop Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Operário MT ↓

Sinop Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Operário MT or draw
48%
Operário MT or Sinop Fc
75%
Draw or Sinop Fc
77%

Winning margin

Operário MT wins by 2+
8%
Sinop Fc wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Operário MT 1+ goals
62%
Operário MT 2+ goals
25%
Operário MT 3+ goals
7%
Sinop Fc 1+ goals
80%
Sinop Fc 2+ goals
48%
Sinop Fc 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Operário MT (draw refunded)
30%
Sinop Fc (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Operário MT at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Sinop Fc away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Operário MT attack 1.17 + Sinop Fc defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.97

Sinop Fc attack 1.56 + Operário MT defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Operário MT scores more
23%
level
25%
Sinop Fc scores more
52%

Sinop Fc at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sinop Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Operário MT vs Sinop Fc

Sinop Fc beat Operário MT 4-1 in Matogrossense 2 on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Presidente Eurico Gaspar Dutra in Cuiabá, Mato Grosso.