Sinop Fc 2–0 Novoperário: Result & Stats | Serie D

Sinop Fc

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Novoperário

Junior Juazeiro 80' (pen)

Gabriel Cajano 2'

4/29/2018

Serie D · Round 2Estádio Municipal Massami Uriú (Sinop, Mato Grosso)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sinop Fc48%

×Draw23%

Novoperário29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sinop FcExpected goals in this matchNovoperário

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.40

Sinop Fc

1.84

Novoperário

1.40

Sinop Fc creates 31% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

1.43

creates per match

1.50

1.29

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Sinop Fc

1.43

Novoperário

1.50

allows per match

Sinop Fc

1.29

Novoperário

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sinop Fc+0.00on par

Novoperário+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sinop Fc ↓

Novoperário →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sinop Fc or draw

71%

Sinop Fc or Novoperário

77%

Draw or Novoperário

52%

Winning margin

Sinop Fc wins by 2+

26%

Novoperário wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sinop Fc 1+ goals

84%

Sinop Fc 2+ goals

55%

Sinop Fc 3+ goals

28%

Novoperário 1+ goals

75%

Novoperário 2+ goals

41%

Novoperário 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sinop Fc (draw refunded)

62%

Novoperário (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sinop Fc at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Novoperário away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sinop Fc attack 1.43 + Novoperário defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.84

Novoperário attack 1.50 + Sinop Fc defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sinop Fc scores more

48%

level

23%

Novoperário scores more

29%

Sinop Fc at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sinop Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Gabriel Cajano

46'

Jadson← Luiz Azevedo

46'

Paulo Henrique← Matheus

58'

Matheus Ortigoza← Leo Carvalho

76'

Jeferson Maranhense← Cabralzinho

80'

Junior JuazeiroPenalty

84'

Dourado← Guilherme

87'

Mosquito← Junior Juazeiro

Sinop

Novoperário

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Juazeiro

▼

Guilherme

Manager: Paulo Foiani

76'▲Jeferson Maranhense←▼Cabralzinho

84'▲Dourado←▼Guilherme

87'▲Mosquito←▼Junior Juazeiro

Sinop Fc substitutes

MaranhenseDouradoMosquitoJoãozinhoTayronWanderYuriCleysonFernandinhoNaldoWillian

Manager: Ricardo Perpetuo

46'▲Jadson←▼Luiz Azevedo

46'▲Paulo Henrique←▼Matheus

58'▲Matheus Ortigoza←▼Leo Carvalho

Novoperário substitutes

JadsonHenriqueOrtigozaIagoChicheteFabianoMarcelinhoVitor