Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Novoperário vs Sinop Fc — Serie D 2018

Novoperário
Novoperário
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sinop Fc
Sinop Fc
5/20/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 5Estádio Universitário Pedro Pedrossian (Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Novoperário45%
×Draw28%
Sinop Fc27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novoperário
1.31
Sinop Fc
0.94

Novoperário creates 39% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Novoperário
1.25
Sinop Fc
1.13

allows per match

Novoperário
0.75
Sinop Fc
1.38

finishing

Novoperário+0.00on par
Sinop Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novoperário ↓

Sinop Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Novoperário or draw
73%
Novoperário or Sinop Fc
72%
Draw or Sinop Fc
55%

Winning margin

Novoperário wins by 2+
21%
Sinop Fc wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Novoperário 1+ goals
73%
Novoperário 2+ goals
38%
Novoperário 3+ goals
14%
Sinop Fc 1+ goals
61%
Sinop Fc 2+ goals
24%
Sinop Fc 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Novoperário (draw refunded)
63%
Sinop Fc (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novoperário at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Sinop Fc away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novoperário attack 1.25 + Sinop Fc defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sinop Fc attack 1.13 + Novoperário defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Novoperário scores more
45%
level
28%
Sinop Fc scores more
27%

Novoperário at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Novoperário will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Novoperário vs Sinop Fc

Novoperário beat Sinop Fc 2-1 in Serie D on May 20, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Universitário Pedro Pedrossian (Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul).