Sinop Fc 1–1 Corumbaense: Result & Stats | Serie D

Sinop Fc

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Corumbaense

5/12/2019

Serie D · Round 2Estádio Municipal Massami Uriú (Sinop, Mato Grosso)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sinop Fc56%

×Draw24%

Corumbaense20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sinop FcExpected goals in this matchCorumbaense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.90

Sinop Fc

1.71

Corumbaense

0.90

Sinop Fc creates 90% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.43

creates per match

0.50

1.29

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sinop Fc

1.43

Corumbaense

0.50

allows per match

Sinop Fc

1.29

Corumbaense

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sinop Fc+0.00on par

Corumbaense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sinop Fc ↓

Corumbaense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sinop Fc or draw

80%

Sinop Fc or Corumbaense

76%

Draw or Corumbaense

44%

Winning margin

Sinop Fc wins by 2+

31%

Corumbaense wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sinop Fc 1+ goals

82%

Sinop Fc 2+ goals

51%

Sinop Fc 3+ goals

24%

Corumbaense 1+ goals

59%

Corumbaense 2+ goals

23%

Corumbaense 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sinop Fc (draw refunded)

74%

Corumbaense (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sinop Fc at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Corumbaense away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sinop Fc attack 1.43 + Corumbaense defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Corumbaense attack 0.50 + Sinop Fc defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sinop Fc scores more

56%

level

24%

Corumbaense scores more

20%

Sinop Fc at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sinop Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff