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Corumbaense vs Sinop Fc — Serie D 2018

Corumbaense
Corumbaense
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sinop Fc
Sinop Fc
6/1/2019Serie DSerie D · Round 5Estádio Artur Marinho (Corumbá, Mato Grosso do Sul)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Corumbaense50%
×Draw25%
Sinop Fc25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corumbaense
1.60
Sinop Fc
1.06

Corumbaense creates 51% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Corumbaense
1.83
Sinop Fc
1.13

allows per match

Corumbaense
1.00
Sinop Fc
1.38

finishing

Corumbaense+0.00on par
Sinop Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corumbaense ↓

Sinop Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Corumbaense or draw
75%
Corumbaense or Sinop Fc
75%
Draw or Sinop Fc
50%

Winning margin

Corumbaense wins by 2+
26%
Sinop Fc wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Corumbaense 1+ goals
80%
Corumbaense 2+ goals
47%
Corumbaense 3+ goals
22%
Sinop Fc 1+ goals
65%
Sinop Fc 2+ goals
29%
Sinop Fc 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Corumbaense (draw refunded)
66%
Sinop Fc (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corumbaense at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Sinop Fc away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corumbaense attack 1.83 + Sinop Fc defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sinop Fc attack 1.13 + Corumbaense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Corumbaense scores more
50%
level
25%
Sinop Fc scores more
25%

Corumbaense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Corumbaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Corumbaense vs Sinop Fc

Corumbaense beat Sinop Fc 4-0 in Serie D on June 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Artur Marinho (Corumbá, Mato Grosso do Sul).