Sinop Fc 2–1 Ceilândia: Result & Stats | Serie D

Sinop Fc

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ceilândia

5/27/2018

Serie D · Round 6Estádio Municipal Massami Uriú (Sinop, Mato Grosso)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sinop Fc37%

×Draw27%

Ceilândia37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sinop FcExpected goals in this matchCeilândia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

Sinop Fc

1.27

Ceilândia

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 34 away

1.43

creates per match

1.26

1.29

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Sinop Fc

1.43

Ceilândia

1.26

allows per match

Sinop Fc

1.29

Ceilândia

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sinop Fc+0.00on par

Ceilândia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sinop Fc ↓

Ceilândia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sinop Fc or draw

63%

Sinop Fc or Ceilândia

73%

Draw or Ceilândia

63%

Winning margin

Sinop Fc wins by 2+

16%

Ceilândia wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sinop Fc 1+ goals

72%

Sinop Fc 2+ goals

36%

Sinop Fc 3+ goals

14%

Ceilândia 1+ goals

72%

Ceilândia 2+ goals

36%

Ceilândia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sinop Fc (draw refunded)

50%

Ceilândia (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sinop Fc at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Ceilândia away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sinop Fc attack 1.43 + Ceilândia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ceilândia attack 1.26 + Sinop Fc defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sinop Fc scores more

37%

level

27%

Ceilândia scores more

37%

Sinop Fc at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sinop Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff