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Ceilândia vs Sinop Fc — Serie D 2018

Ceilândia
Ceilândia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sinop Fc
Sinop Fc
4/21/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 1Estádio Maria de Lourdes Abadia (Ceilândia, Distrito Federal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ceilândia50%
×Draw27%
Sinop Fc23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceilândia
1.44
Sinop Fc
0.89

Ceilândia creates 62% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 8 away

creates per match

Ceilândia
1.50
Sinop Fc
1.13

allows per match

Ceilândia
0.65
Sinop Fc
1.38

finishing

Ceilândia+0.00on par
Sinop Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceilândia ↓

Sinop Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ceilândia or draw
77%
Ceilândia or Sinop Fc
73%
Draw or Sinop Fc
50%

Winning margin

Ceilândia wins by 2+
25%
Sinop Fc wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ceilândia 1+ goals
76%
Ceilândia 2+ goals
42%
Ceilândia 3+ goals
18%
Sinop Fc 1+ goals
59%
Sinop Fc 2+ goals
22%
Sinop Fc 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ceilândia (draw refunded)
68%
Sinop Fc (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceilândia at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Sinop Fc away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceilândia attack 1.50 + Sinop Fc defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sinop Fc attack 1.13 + Ceilândia defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ceilândia scores more
50%
level
27%
Sinop Fc scores more
23%

Ceilândia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ceilândia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ceilândia vs Sinop Fc

Ceilândia and Sinop Fc drew 0-0 in Serie D on April 21, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Maria de Lourdes Abadia (Ceilândia, Distrito Federal).