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Sinop Fc vs Campo Novo — Matogrossense 2 2024

Sinop Fc
Sinop Fc
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Campo Novo
Campo Novo
5/18/2024Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Massami Uriú

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sinop Fc75%
×Draw15%
Campo Novo11%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sinop Fc
2.83
Campo Novo
0.98

Sinop Fc creates 189% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sinop Fc
1.50
Campo Novo
1.33

allows per match

Sinop Fc
0.63
Campo Novo
4.17

finishing

Sinop Fc+0.00on par
Campo Novo+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sinop Fc ↓

Campo Novo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sinop Fc or draw
89%
Sinop Fc or Campo Novo
85%
Draw or Campo Novo
25%

Winning margin

Sinop Fc wins by 2+
54%
Campo Novo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sinop Fc 1+ goals
94%
Sinop Fc 2+ goals
77%
Sinop Fc 3+ goals
53%
Campo Novo 1+ goals
62%
Campo Novo 2+ goals
26%
Campo Novo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sinop Fc (draw refunded)
88%
Campo Novo (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sinop Fc at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Campo Novo away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sinop Fc attack 1.50 + Campo Novo defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 2.83

Campo Novo attack 1.33 + Sinop Fc defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Sinop Fc scores more
75%
level
15%
Campo Novo scores more
11%

Sinop Fc at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Sinop Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sinop Fc vs Campo Novo

Sinop Fc beat Campo Novo 3-2 in Matogrossense 2 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Massami Uriú in Sinop, Mato Grosso.