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Campo Novo vs Sinop Fc — Matogrossense 2 2025

Campo Novo
Campo Novo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Sinop Fc
Sinop Fc
5/17/2026Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Campo Novo8%
×Draw17%
Sinop Fc75%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campo Novo
0.53
Sinop Fc
2.17

Sinop Fc creates 309% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Campo Novo
0.25
Sinop Fc
1.60

allows per match

Campo Novo
2.75
Sinop Fc
0.80

finishing

Campo Novo+0.00on par
Sinop Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campo Novo ↓

Sinop Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–115%
0–216%
0–312%
0–46%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Campo Novo or draw
25%
Campo Novo or Sinop Fc
83%
Draw or Sinop Fc
92%

Winning margin

Campo Novo wins by 2+
2%
Sinop Fc wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Campo Novo 1+ goals
41%
Campo Novo 2+ goals
10%
Campo Novo 3+ goals
2%
Sinop Fc 1+ goals
89%
Sinop Fc 2+ goals
64%
Sinop Fc 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Campo Novo (draw refunded)
9%
Sinop Fc (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campo Novo at home — creates 0.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Sinop Fc away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campo Novo attack 0.25 + Sinop Fc defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.53

Sinop Fc attack 1.60 + Campo Novo defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Campo Novo scores more
8%
level
17%
Sinop Fc scores more
75%

Sinop Fc at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Sinop Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Matogrossense 2: Campo Novo 1–3 Sinop Fc

Sinop Fc beat Campo Novo 3-1 in Matogrossense 2 on May 17, 2026.