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Singida Black Stars vs Pamba Jiji — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Singida Black Stars
Singida Black Stars
FT
2 – 2
Pamba Jiji
Pamba Jiji
2/23/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 21Liti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Singida Black Stars61%
×Draw24%
Pamba Jiji16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Singida Black Stars
1.71
Pamba Jiji
0.73

Singida Black Stars creates 134% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

creates per match

Singida Black Stars
1.88
Pamba Jiji
0.58

allows per match

Singida Black Stars
0.88
Pamba Jiji
1.54

finishing

Singida Black Stars+0.00on par
Pamba Jiji+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Singida Black Stars ↓

Pamba Jiji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Singida Black Stars or draw
84%
Singida Black Stars or Pamba Jiji
76%
Draw or Pamba Jiji
39%

Winning margin

Singida Black Stars wins by 2+
34%
Pamba Jiji wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Singida Black Stars 1+ goals
82%
Singida Black Stars 2+ goals
51%
Singida Black Stars 3+ goals
24%
Pamba Jiji 1+ goals
52%
Pamba Jiji 2+ goals
17%
Pamba Jiji 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Singida Black Stars (draw refunded)
80%
Pamba Jiji (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Singida Black Stars at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

Pamba Jiji away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Singida Black Stars attack 1.88 + Pamba Jiji defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.71

Pamba Jiji attack 0.58 + Singida Black Stars defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Singida Black Stars scores more
61%
level
24%
Pamba Jiji scores more
16%

Singida Black Stars at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Singida Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Singida Black Stars vs Pamba Jiji

Singida Black Stars and Pamba Jiji drew 2-2 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 23, 2025.

The match was played at Liti Stadium in Singida.