Pamba Jiji 1–1 Singida Black Stars: Result & Stats

Pamba Jiji

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Singida Black Stars

K. Naftal 51'

C. Chama 32'

11/8/2025

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 5CCM Kirumba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Pamba Jiji38%

×Draw28%

Singida Black Stars34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pamba JijiExpected goals in this matchSingida Black Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.15

Pamba Jiji

1.23

Singida Black Stars

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

1.24

creates per match

1.43

0.86

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Pamba Jiji

1.24

Singida Black Stars

1.43

allows per match

Pamba Jiji

0.86

Singida Black Stars

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pamba Jiji+0.00on par

Singida Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pamba Jiji ↓

Singida Black Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Pamba Jiji or draw

66%

Pamba Jiji or Singida Black Stars

72%

Draw or Singida Black Stars

62%

Winning margin

Pamba Jiji wins by 2+

16%

Singida Black Stars wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Pamba Jiji 1+ goals

71%

Pamba Jiji 2+ goals

35%

Pamba Jiji 3+ goals

13%

Singida Black Stars 1+ goals

68%

Singida Black Stars 2+ goals

32%

Singida Black Stars 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Pamba Jiji (draw refunded)

53%

Singida Black Stars (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pamba Jiji at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Singida Black Stars away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pamba Jiji attack 1.24 + Singida Black Stars defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Singida Black Stars attack 1.43 + Pamba Jiji defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pamba Jiji scores more

38%

level

28%

Singida Black Stars scores more

34%

Pamba Jiji at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pamba Jiji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

32'

50'

51'

61'

61'

71'

M. Tegisi← I. Abraham

78'

S. Antwi← S. Oyugi Siwa

79'

E. Keyekeh← M. Tchakei

79'

A. Phiri← I. Diomande

88'

P. Kasindi← A. Yonta Camara

88'

H. Kibailo← Z. Mayombya

Pamba

Singida

12

Obasogie

21

Ande

3

Kibabage

29

▼

13

11

4

20

▼

Diomande

10

▼

Tchakei

17

⚽

Chama

9

▼

Muaku

33

Amosi

36

Kunambi

3

▼

2

5

23

30

▼

Mayombya

24

⚽

Naftal

19

Lwasa

20

▼

Siwa

14

▼

Camara

71'▲M. Tegisi←▼I. Abraham

78'▲S. Antwi←▼S. Oyugi Siwa

88'▲P. Kasindi←▼A. Yonta Camara

88'▲H. Kibailo←▼Z. Mayombya

Pamba Jiji substitutes

KasindiTegisi11IbrahimKamaraNakibingeKibailoLukindaLutonjaMpemuAntwi

61'▲M. Damaro←▼M. Issa

61'▲E. Rupia←▼H. Muaku

79'▲E. Keyekeh←▼M. Tchakei

79'▲A. Phiri←▼I. Diomande

Singida Black Stars substitutes

MasalangaJumaKamagiDamaro6KeyekehPhiriKaseke39RupiaAdamDaud