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Singida Black Stars vs Mashujaa — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Singida Black Stars
Singida Black Stars
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mashujaa
Mashujaa
2/26/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 22Liti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Singida Black Stars58%
×Draw25%
Mashujaa17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Singida Black Stars
1.59
Mashujaa
0.73

Singida Black Stars creates 118% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 32 away

creates per match

Singida Black Stars
1.88
Mashujaa
0.59

allows per match

Singida Black Stars
0.88
Mashujaa
1.31

finishing

Singida Black Stars+0.00on par
Mashujaa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Singida Black Stars ↓

Mashujaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Singida Black Stars or draw
83%
Singida Black Stars or Mashujaa
75%
Draw or Mashujaa
42%

Winning margin

Singida Black Stars wins by 2+
31%
Mashujaa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Singida Black Stars 1+ goals
80%
Singida Black Stars 2+ goals
47%
Singida Black Stars 3+ goals
21%
Mashujaa 1+ goals
52%
Mashujaa 2+ goals
17%
Mashujaa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Singida Black Stars (draw refunded)
77%
Mashujaa (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Singida Black Stars at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

Mashujaa away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Singida Black Stars attack 1.88 + Mashujaa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.59

Mashujaa attack 0.59 + Singida Black Stars defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Singida Black Stars scores more
58%
level
25%
Mashujaa scores more
17%

Singida Black Stars at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Singida Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Singida Black Stars vs Mashujaa

Singida Black Stars beat Mashujaa 3-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 26, 2025.

The match was played at Liti Stadium in Singida.