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Mashujaa vs Singida Black Stars — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Mashujaa
Mashujaa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Singida Black Stars
Singida Black Stars
M. Tchakei 90+15'
10/4/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 7Lake Tanganyika Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Mashujaa37%
×Draw30%
Singida Black Stars33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mashujaa
1.07
Singida Black Stars
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 25 away

creates per match

Mashujaa
0.94
Singida Black Stars
1.36

allows per match

Mashujaa
0.62
Singida Black Stars
1.20

finishing

Mashujaa+0.00on par
Singida Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mashujaa ↓

Singida Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mashujaa or draw
67%
Mashujaa or Singida Black Stars
70%
Draw or Singida Black Stars
63%

Winning margin

Mashujaa wins by 2+
15%
Singida Black Stars wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mashujaa 1+ goals
66%
Mashujaa 2+ goals
29%
Mashujaa 3+ goals
9%
Singida Black Stars 1+ goals
63%
Singida Black Stars 2+ goals
26%
Singida Black Stars 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mashujaa (draw refunded)
53%
Singida Black Stars (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mashujaa at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.62 · 34 matches

Singida Black Stars away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mashujaa attack 0.94 + Singida Black Stars defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.07

Singida Black Stars attack 1.36 + Mashujaa defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mashujaa scores more
37%
level
30%
Singida Black Stars scores more
33%

Mashujaa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mashujaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+15'
M. Tchakei

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mashujaa vs Singida Black Stars

Singida Black Stars beat Mashujaa 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on October 4, 2024.

Goals: M. Tchakei (90+15').

The match was played at Lake Tanganyika Stadium in Kigoma.