Singida Black Stars 1–0 KMC: Result & Stats

Singida Black Stars

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

KMC

L. Jarjou 69'

4/8/2026

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 17Airtel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Singida Black Stars61%

×Draw23%

KMC16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Singida Black StarsExpected goals in this matchKMC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.76

Singida Black Stars

1.75

KMC

0.76

Singida Black Stars creates 130% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 38 away

1.88

creates per match

0.63

0.88

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Singida Black Stars

1.88

KMC

0.63

allows per match

Singida Black Stars

0.88

KMC

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Singida Black Stars+0.00on par

KMC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Singida Black Stars ↓

KMC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Singida Black Stars or draw

84%

Singida Black Stars or KMC

77%

Draw or KMC

39%

Winning margin

Singida Black Stars wins by 2+

35%

KMC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Singida Black Stars 1+ goals

83%

Singida Black Stars 2+ goals

52%

Singida Black Stars 3+ goals

25%

KMC 1+ goals

53%

KMC 2+ goals

18%

KMC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Singida Black Stars (draw refunded)

79%

KMC (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Singida Black Stars at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

KMC away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Singida Black Stars attack 1.88 + KMC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.75

KMC attack 0.63 + Singida Black Stars defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Singida Black Stars scores more

61%

level

23%

KMC scores more

16%

Singida Black Stars at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Singida Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

58'

A. Lyanga← I. Diomande

63'

S. Kidawa← B. Majogoro

69'

L. Jarjou

78'

K. Ally← R. Mussa

78'

E. Mpepo← D. Saliboko

79'

M. Horso Mwaku← L. Jarjou

Singida

KMC

18

5

36

3

10

▼

Saliboko

15

▼

11

9

16

12

30

▼

23

8

5

11

13

15

⚽

▼

Jarjou

20

▼

21

32

39

40

58'▲A. Lyanga←▼I. Diomande

79'▲M. Horso Mwaku←▼L. Jarjou

Singida Black Stars substitutes

LyangaMwakuSaidMkinyangeObasogieKasekeChikolaIssaAdamKabamba

63'▲S. Kidawa←▼B. Majogoro

78'▲K. Ally←▼R. Mussa

78'▲E. Mpepo←▼D. Saliboko

KMC substitutes

MutomboraGamboAllyAnyimikeSimbaMwaitukaPauloKidawaMpepoTondi