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KMC vs Singida Black Stars — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

KMC
KMC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Singida Black Stars
Singida Black Stars
P. Oscar 40', 35'
2/10/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 18KMC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

KMC28%
×Draw26%
Singida Black Stars46%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KMC
1.05
Singida Black Stars
1.44

Singida Black Stars creates 37% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 25 away

creates per match

KMC
0.91
Singida Black Stars
1.36

allows per match

KMC
1.51
Singida Black Stars
1.20

finishing

KMC+0.00on par
Singida Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KMC ↓

Singida Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

KMC or draw
54%
KMC or Singida Black Stars
74%
Draw or Singida Black Stars
72%

Winning margin

KMC wins by 2+
10%
Singida Black Stars wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

KMC 1+ goals
65%
KMC 2+ goals
28%
KMC 3+ goals
9%
Singida Black Stars 1+ goals
76%
Singida Black Stars 2+ goals
42%
Singida Black Stars 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

KMC (draw refunded)
37%
Singida Black Stars (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KMC at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

Singida Black Stars away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KMC attack 0.91 + Singida Black Stars defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.05

Singida Black Stars attack 1.36 + KMC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

KMC scores more
28%
level
26%
Singida Black Stars scores more
46%

Singida Black Stars at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Singida Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
P. Oscar
40'
P. Oscar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: KMC 2–0 Singida Black Stars

KMC beat Singida Black Stars 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 10, 2025.

Goals: P. Oscar (35', 40').

The match was played at KMC Stadium in Dar es Salaam.