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Singida Black Stars vs Fountain Gate — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Singida Black Stars
Singida Black Stars
FT
2 – 0
Fountain Gate
Fountain Gate
10/25/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 9Liti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Singida Black Stars56%
×Draw25%
Fountain Gate20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Singida Black Stars
1.64
Fountain Gate
0.86

Singida Black Stars creates 91% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 23 away

creates per match

Singida Black Stars
1.84
Fountain Gate
0.78

allows per match

Singida Black Stars
0.95
Fountain Gate
1.43

finishing

Singida Black Stars+0.00on par
Fountain Gate+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Singida Black Stars ↓

Fountain Gate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Singida Black Stars or draw
80%
Singida Black Stars or Fountain Gate
75%
Draw or Fountain Gate
44%

Winning margin

Singida Black Stars wins by 2+
30%
Fountain Gate wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Singida Black Stars 1+ goals
81%
Singida Black Stars 2+ goals
49%
Singida Black Stars 3+ goals
23%
Fountain Gate 1+ goals
58%
Fountain Gate 2+ goals
21%
Fountain Gate 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Singida Black Stars (draw refunded)
74%
Fountain Gate (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Singida Black Stars at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Fountain Gate away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Singida Black Stars attack 1.84 + Fountain Gate defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.64

Fountain Gate attack 0.78 + Singida Black Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Singida Black Stars scores more
56%
level
25%
Fountain Gate scores more
20%

Singida Black Stars at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Singida Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Singida Black Stars vs Fountain Gate

Singida Black Stars beat Fountain Gate 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on October 25, 2024.

The match was played at Liti Stadium in Singida.