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Fountain Gate vs Singida Black Stars — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Fountain Gate
Fountain Gate
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Singida Black Stars
Singida Black Stars
H. Kindemile 67', 65'
C. Obasi 32'
H. David 9'
M. Nduwumwe 86', 13', 9'
6/30/2026Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 30Kwaraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fountain Gate35%
×Draw24%
Singida Black Stars40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fountain Gate
1.45
Singida Black Stars
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Fountain Gate
0.89
Singida Black Stars
1.33

allows per match

Fountain Gate
1.78
Singida Black Stars
2.00

finishing

Fountain Gate+0.00on par
Singida Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fountain Gate ↓

Singida Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Fountain Gate or draw
60%
Fountain Gate or Singida Black Stars
76%
Draw or Singida Black Stars
65%

Winning margin

Fountain Gate wins by 2+
17%
Singida Black Stars wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Fountain Gate 1+ goals
77%
Fountain Gate 2+ goals
42%
Fountain Gate 3+ goals
18%
Singida Black Stars 1+ goals
79%
Singida Black Stars 2+ goals
46%
Singida Black Stars 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Fountain Gate (draw refunded)
47%
Singida Black Stars (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fountain Gate at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Singida Black Stars away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fountain Gate attack 0.89 + Singida Black Stars defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Singida Black Stars attack 1.33 + Fountain Gate defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fountain Gate scores more
35%
level
24%
Singida Black Stars scores more
40%

Singida Black Stars at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Singida Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
H. David
9'
M. Nduwumwe
13'
M. Nduwumwe
32'
C. Obasi
65'
H. Kindemile
67'
H. Kindemile
86'
M. Nduwumwe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Fountain Gate 4–3 Singida Black Stars

Fountain Gate beat Singida Black Stars 4-3 in Ligi kuu Bara on June 30, 2026.

Goals: H. David (9'), M. Nduwumwe (9', 13', 86'), C. Obasi (32'), H. Kindemile (65', 67').

The match was played at Kwaraa Stadium.