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Singida Black Stars vs Dodoma Jiji — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Singida Black Stars
Singida Black Stars
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Dodoma Jiji
Dodoma Jiji
E. Rupia 15', 8'
Y. Mgaza 58'
12/12/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 14Liti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Singida Black Stars62%
×Draw22%
Dodoma Jiji15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Singida Black Stars
1.81
Dodoma Jiji
0.77

Singida Black Stars creates 135% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

creates per match

Singida Black Stars
1.84
Dodoma Jiji
0.59

allows per match

Singida Black Stars
0.95
Dodoma Jiji
1.77

finishing

Singida Black Stars+0.00on par
Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Singida Black Stars ↓

Dodoma Jiji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Singida Black Stars or draw
85%
Singida Black Stars or Dodoma Jiji
78%
Draw or Dodoma Jiji
38%

Winning margin

Singida Black Stars wins by 2+
36%
Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Singida Black Stars 1+ goals
84%
Singida Black Stars 2+ goals
54%
Singida Black Stars 3+ goals
27%
Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals
54%
Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals
18%
Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Singida Black Stars (draw refunded)
80%
Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Singida Black Stars at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Dodoma Jiji away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Singida Black Stars attack 1.84 + Dodoma Jiji defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.81

Dodoma Jiji attack 0.59 + Singida Black Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Singida Black Stars scores more
62%
level
22%
Dodoma Jiji scores more
15%

Singida Black Stars at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Singida Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
E. Rupia
15'
E. Rupia↳ A. Bada
58'
Y. Mgaza

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Singida Black Stars 2–1 Dodoma Jiji

Singida Black Stars beat Dodoma Jiji 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 12, 2024.

Goals: E. Rupia (8', 15'), Y. Mgaza (58').

The match was played at Liti Stadium in Singida.