Dodoma Jiji 1–1 Singida Black Stars: Result & Stats

Dodoma Jiji

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Singida Black Stars

Y. Mgaza 83'

M. Tchakei 90'

1/16/2026

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 12Jamhuri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dodoma Jiji38%

×Draw25%

Singida Black Stars37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dodoma JijiExpected goals in this matchSingida Black Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.41

Dodoma Jiji

1.44

Singida Black Stars

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

1.17

creates per match

1.57

1.25

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Dodoma Jiji

1.17

Singida Black Stars

1.57

allows per match

Dodoma Jiji

1.25

Singida Black Stars

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par

Singida Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dodoma Jiji ↓

Singida Black Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Dodoma Jiji or draw

63%

Dodoma Jiji or Singida Black Stars

75%

Draw or Singida Black Stars

62%

Winning margin

Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+

18%

Singida Black Stars wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals

76%

Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals

42%

Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals

18%

Singida Black Stars 1+ goals

76%

Singida Black Stars 2+ goals

41%

Singida Black Stars 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)

51%

Singida Black Stars (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dodoma Jiji at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Singida Black Stars away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dodoma Jiji attack 1.17 + Singida Black Stars defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Singida Black Stars attack 1.57 + Dodoma Jiji defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dodoma Jiji scores more

38%

level

25%

Singida Black Stars scores more

37%

Dodoma Jiji at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dodoma Jiji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

41'

51'

60'

61'

65'

76'

83'

Y. Mgaza

90'

90+2'

90+8'

90'

M. Tchakei

Dodoma

Singida

17

39

20

26

29

10

⚽

6

1

11

31

6

20

3

14

11

24

53

Dodoma Jiji substitutes

26NsataSeif21Kipagwile30Kasanga7Ambundo9MgazaJabiriMgoreMwakyembe

Singida Black Stars substitutes

27Kaseke9Muaku4Habibu30Masalanga