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Singapore vs Myanmar — AFF Championship 2018

Singapore
Singapore
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Myanmar
Myanmar
12/5/2021AFF ChampionshipAFF Championship · Group Stage - 1The National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Singapore70%
×Draw17%
Myanmar13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Singapore
2.44
Myanmar
0.93

Singapore creates 162% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Singapore
2.00
Myanmar
0.75

allows per match

Singapore
1.10
Myanmar
2.88

finishing

Singapore+0.00on par
Myanmar+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Singapore ↓

Myanmar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Singapore or draw
87%
Singapore or Myanmar
83%
Draw or Myanmar
30%

Winning margin

Singapore wins by 2+
48%
Myanmar wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Singapore 1+ goals
91%
Singapore 2+ goals
70%
Singapore 3+ goals
43%
Myanmar 1+ goals
61%
Myanmar 2+ goals
24%
Myanmar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Singapore (draw refunded)
85%
Myanmar (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Singapore at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Myanmar away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Singapore attack 2.00 + Myanmar defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.44

Myanmar attack 0.75 + Singapore defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Singapore scores more
70%
level
17%
Myanmar scores more
13%

Singapore at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Singapore will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFF Championship: Singapore 3–0 Myanmar

Singapore beat Myanmar 3-0 in AFF Championship on December 5, 2021.

The match was played at The National Stadium in Singapore.