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Myanmar vs Singapore — Asian Cup - Qualification 2019

Myanmar
Myanmar
FT
2 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Singapore
Singapore
6/14/2022Asian Cup - QualificationAsian Cup - Qualification · 3rd Round - 3Stadion im. Dolena Omurzakova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Myanmar24%
×Draw23%
Singapore53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Myanmar
1.13
Singapore
1.81

Singapore creates 60% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Myanmar
1.00
Singapore
1.75

allows per match

Myanmar
1.88
Singapore
1.25

finishing

Myanmar+0.00on par
Singapore+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Myanmar ↓

Singapore →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Myanmar or draw
47%
Myanmar or Singapore
77%
Draw or Singapore
76%

Winning margin

Myanmar wins by 2+
9%
Singapore wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Myanmar 1+ goals
68%
Myanmar 2+ goals
31%
Myanmar 3+ goals
11%
Singapore 1+ goals
84%
Singapore 2+ goals
54%
Singapore 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Myanmar (draw refunded)
31%
Singapore (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Myanmar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Singapore away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Myanmar attack 1.00 + Singapore defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Singapore attack 1.75 + Myanmar defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Myanmar scores more
24%
level
23%
Singapore scores more
53%

Singapore at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Singapore will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Asian Cup - Qualification: Myanmar 2–6 Singapore

Singapore beat Myanmar 6-2 in Asian Cup - Qualification on June 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Dolena Omurzakova in Bishkek.