Sindri 0–0 Dalvík / Reynir: Result & Stats

Sindri

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dalvík / Reynir

6/3/2023

2. Deild · Round 5Jökulfellsvöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sindri42%

×Draw24%

Dalvík / Reynir33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SindriExpected goals in this matchDalvík / Reynir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.39

Sindri

1.60

Dalvík / Reynir

1.39

Sindri creates 15% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 49 away

1.58

creates per match

1.45

1.33

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Sindri

1.58

Dalvík / Reynir

1.45

allows per match

Sindri

1.33

Dalvík / Reynir

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sindri+0.00on par

Dalvík / Reynir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sindri ↓

Dalvík / Reynir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sindri or draw

67%

Sindri or Dalvík / Reynir

76%

Draw or Dalvík / Reynir

58%

Winning margin

Sindri wins by 2+

21%

Dalvík / Reynir wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sindri 1+ goals

80%

Sindri 2+ goals

47%

Sindri 3+ goals

22%

Dalvík / Reynir 1+ goals

75%

Dalvík / Reynir 2+ goals

40%

Dalvík / Reynir 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sindri (draw refunded)

56%

Dalvík / Reynir (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sindri at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Dalvík / Reynir away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.61 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sindri attack 1.58 + Dalvík / Reynir defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Dalvík / Reynir attack 1.45 + Sindri defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sindri scores more

42%

level

24%

Dalvík / Reynir scores more

33%

Sindri at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sindri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff