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Dalvík / Reynir vs Sindri — 2. Deild 2018

Dalvík / Reynir
Dalvík / Reynir
FT
2 – 1
Sindri
Sindri
8/10/20232. Deild2. Deild · Round 16Dalvíkurvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Dalvík / Reynir63%
×Draw19%
Sindri18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalvík / Reynir
2.43
Sindri
1.25

Dalvík / Reynir creates 94% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 12 away

creates per match

Dalvík / Reynir
1.78
Sindri
1.08

allows per match

Dalvík / Reynir
1.41
Sindri
3.08

finishing

Dalvík / Reynir+0.00on par
Sindri+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalvík / Reynir ↓

Sindri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Dalvík / Reynir or draw
82%
Dalvík / Reynir or Sindri
81%
Draw or Sindri
37%

Winning margin

Dalvík / Reynir wins by 2+
41%
Sindri wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dalvík / Reynir 1+ goals
91%
Dalvík / Reynir 2+ goals
69%
Dalvík / Reynir 3+ goals
43%
Sindri 1+ goals
71%
Sindri 2+ goals
36%
Sindri 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dalvík / Reynir (draw refunded)
77%
Sindri (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalvík / Reynir at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.41 · 49 matches

Sindri away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalvík / Reynir attack 1.78 + Sindri defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.43

Sindri attack 1.08 + Dalvík / Reynir defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Dalvík / Reynir scores more
63%
level
19%
Sindri scores more
18%

Dalvík / Reynir at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Dalvík / Reynir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalvík / Reynir vs Sindri

Dalvík / Reynir beat Sindri 2-1 in 2. Deild on August 10, 2023.

The match was played at Dalvíkurvöllur in Dalvík.