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Sindjelic Beograd vs OFK Beograd — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
FT
0 – 1
OFK Beograd
OFK Beograd
8/29/2020Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 3Stadion FK Sinđelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Sindjelic Beograd32%
×Draw27%
OFK Beograd40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sindjelic Beograd
1.12
OFK Beograd
1.29

OFK Beograd creates 15% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 57 away

creates per match

Sindjelic Beograd
1.24
OFK Beograd
1.56

allows per match

Sindjelic Beograd
1.02
OFK Beograd
1.00

finishing

Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par
OFK Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sindjelic Beograd ↓

OFK Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sindjelic Beograd or draw
60%
Sindjelic Beograd or OFK Beograd
73%
Draw or OFK Beograd
68%

Winning margin

Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
13%
OFK Beograd wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
67%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
31%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
10%
OFK Beograd 1+ goals
72%
OFK Beograd 2+ goals
37%
OFK Beograd 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
44%
OFK Beograd (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sindjelic Beograd at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.02 · 49 matches

OFK Beograd away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.00 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sindjelic Beograd attack 1.24 + OFK Beograd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.12

OFK Beograd attack 1.56 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sindjelic Beograd scores more
32%
level
27%
OFK Beograd scores more
40%

OFK Beograd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "OFK Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Sindjelic Beograd 0–1 OFK Beograd

OFK Beograd beat Sindjelic Beograd 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Sinđelić in Beograd.