OFK Beograd 2–1 Sindjelic Beograd: Result & Stats

OFK Beograd

FT

2 – 1

Sindjelic Beograd

3/18/2023

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 18Omladinski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

OFK Beograd57%

×Draw24%

Sindjelic Beograd19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OFK BeogradExpected goals in this matchSindjelic Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.82

OFK Beograd

1.65

Sindjelic Beograd

0.82

OFK Beograd creates 101% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 49 away

1.93

creates per match

0.86

0.78

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

OFK Beograd

1.93

Sindjelic Beograd

0.86

allows per match

OFK Beograd

0.78

Sindjelic Beograd

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OFK Beograd+0.00on par

Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Beograd ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

OFK Beograd or draw

81%

OFK Beograd or Sindjelic Beograd

76%

Draw or Sindjelic Beograd

43%

Winning margin

OFK Beograd wins by 2+

31%

Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

OFK Beograd 1+ goals

81%

OFK Beograd 2+ goals

49%

OFK Beograd 3+ goals

23%

Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals

56%

Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals

20%

Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

OFK Beograd (draw refunded)

75%

Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Beograd at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.78 · 58 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Beograd attack 1.93 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.86 + OFK Beograd defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

OFK Beograd scores more

57%

level

24%

Sindjelic Beograd scores more

19%

OFK Beograd at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "OFK Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff