Sindjelic Beograd 2–0 Lokomotiva Beograd

Sindjelic Beograd

FT

2 – 0

Lokomotiva Beograd

4/17/2021

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 29Stadion Careva Ćuprija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sindjelic Beograd51%

×Draw25%

Lokomotiva Beograd24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sindjelic BeogradExpected goals in this matchLokomotiva Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.04

Sindjelic Beograd

1.62

Lokomotiva Beograd

1.04

Sindjelic Beograd creates 56% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 28 away

1.24

creates per match

1.07

1.02

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sindjelic Beograd

1.24

Lokomotiva Beograd

1.07

allows per match

Sindjelic Beograd

1.02

Lokomotiva Beograd

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Lokomotiva Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sindjelic Beograd ↓

Lokomotiva Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sindjelic Beograd or draw

76%

Sindjelic Beograd or Lokomotiva Beograd

75%

Draw or Lokomotiva Beograd

49%

Winning margin

Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+

27%

Lokomotiva Beograd wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals

80%

Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals

48%

Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals

22%

Lokomotiva Beograd 1+ goals

65%

Lokomotiva Beograd 2+ goals

28%

Lokomotiva Beograd 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)

68%

Lokomotiva Beograd (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sindjelic Beograd at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.02 · 49 matches

Lokomotiva Beograd away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sindjelic Beograd attack 1.24 + Lokomotiva Beograd defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.62

Lokomotiva Beograd attack 1.07 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sindjelic Beograd scores more

51%

level

25%

Lokomotiva Beograd scores more

24%

Sindjelic Beograd at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sindjelic Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff