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Lokomotiva Beograd vs Sindjelic Beograd — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Lokomotiva Beograd
Lokomotiva Beograd
FT
1 – 1
Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
10/10/2020Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 10Stadion FK Lokomotiva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Lokomotiva Beograd38%
×Draw27%
Sindjelic Beograd35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiva Beograd
1.26
Sindjelic Beograd
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 49 away

creates per match

Lokomotiva Beograd
1.15
Sindjelic Beograd
0.86

allows per match

Lokomotiva Beograd
1.56
Sindjelic Beograd
1.37

finishing

Lokomotiva Beograd+0.00on par
Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiva Beograd ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lokomotiva Beograd or draw
65%
Lokomotiva Beograd or Sindjelic Beograd
73%
Draw or Sindjelic Beograd
62%

Winning margin

Lokomotiva Beograd wins by 2+
16%
Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lokomotiva Beograd 1+ goals
72%
Lokomotiva Beograd 2+ goals
36%
Lokomotiva Beograd 3+ goals
13%
Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
70%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
34%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiva Beograd (draw refunded)
52%
Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiva Beograd at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.56 · 27 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiva Beograd attack 1.15 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.26

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.86 + Lokomotiva Beograd defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lokomotiva Beograd scores more
38%
level
27%
Sindjelic Beograd scores more
35%

Lokomotiva Beograd at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lokomotiva Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Lokomotiva Beograd 1–1 Sindjelic Beograd

Lokomotiva Beograd and Sindjelic Beograd drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Lokomotiva in Beograd.