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Sindjelic Beograd vs Jedinstvo Su — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
FT
2 – 2
Jedinstvo Su
Jedinstvo Su
11/4/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 13Stadion FK Sinđelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Sindjelic Beograd44%
×Draw28%
Jedinstvo Su28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sindjelic Beograd
1.33
Jedinstvo Su
1.00

Sindjelic Beograd creates 33% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 100 away

creates per match

Sindjelic Beograd
1.24
Jedinstvo Su
0.99

allows per match

Sindjelic Beograd
1.02
Jedinstvo Su
1.43

finishing

Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Su+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sindjelic Beograd ↓

Jedinstvo Su →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sindjelic Beograd or draw
72%
Sindjelic Beograd or Jedinstvo Su
72%
Draw or Jedinstvo Su
56%

Winning margin

Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
21%
Jedinstvo Su wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
74%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
38%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
15%
Jedinstvo Su 1+ goals
63%
Jedinstvo Su 2+ goals
26%
Jedinstvo Su 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
61%
Jedinstvo Su (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sindjelic Beograd at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.02 · 49 matches

Jedinstvo Su away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sindjelic Beograd attack 1.24 + Jedinstvo Su defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Jedinstvo Su attack 0.99 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sindjelic Beograd scores more
44%
level
28%
Jedinstvo Su scores more
28%

Sindjelic Beograd at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sindjelic Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sindjelic Beograd vs Jedinstvo Su

Sindjelic Beograd and Jedinstvo Su drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Sinđelić in Beograd.