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Jedinstvo Su vs Sindjelic Beograd — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Jedinstvo Su
Jedinstvo Su
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
5/19/2024Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 28Stadion FK Jedinstvo Surčin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Jedinstvo Su46%
×Draw28%
Sindjelic Beograd26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Su
1.34
Sindjelic Beograd
0.93

Jedinstvo Su creates 44% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 49 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Su
1.31
Sindjelic Beograd
0.86

allows per match

Jedinstvo Su
1.00
Sindjelic Beograd
1.37

finishing

Jedinstvo Su+0.00on par
Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Su ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Su or draw
74%
Jedinstvo Su or Sindjelic Beograd
72%
Draw or Sindjelic Beograd
54%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Su wins by 2+
22%
Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Su 1+ goals
74%
Jedinstvo Su 2+ goals
39%
Jedinstvo Su 3+ goals
15%
Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
61%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
24%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Su (draw refunded)
64%
Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Su at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.00 · 97 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Su attack 1.31 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.34

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.86 + Jedinstvo Su defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jedinstvo Su scores more
46%
level
28%
Sindjelic Beograd scores more
26%

Jedinstvo Su at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jedinstvo Su will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Jedinstvo Su 5–0 Sindjelic Beograd

Jedinstvo Su beat Sindjelic Beograd 5-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Jedinstvo Surčin in Beograd.