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Sindjelic Beograd vs Indjija — Prva Liga 2018

Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Indjija
Indjija
10/13/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 11Stadion FK Sinđelić (Beograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sindjelic Beograd36%
×Draw29%
Indjija35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sindjelic Beograd
1.13
Indjija
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 92 away

creates per match

Sindjelic Beograd
1.12
Indjija
1.09

allows per match

Sindjelic Beograd
1.12
Indjija
1.13

finishing

Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par
Indjija+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sindjelic Beograd ↓

Indjija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sindjelic Beograd or draw
65%
Sindjelic Beograd or Indjija
71%
Draw or Indjija
64%

Winning margin

Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
15%
Indjija wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
68%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
31%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
11%
Indjija 1+ goals
67%
Indjija 2+ goals
30%
Indjija 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
51%
Indjija (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sindjelic Beograd at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Indjija away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.13 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sindjelic Beograd attack 1.12 + Indjija defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Indjija attack 1.09 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sindjelic Beograd scores more
36%
level
29%
Indjija scores more
35%

Sindjelic Beograd at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sindjelic Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sindjelic Beograd vs Indjija

Sindjelic Beograd and Indjija drew 0-0 in Prva Liga on October 13, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion FK Sinđelić (Beograd).