Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Indjija vs Sindjelic Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

Indjija
Indjija
FT
0 – 0
Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
3/11/2019Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 26Gradski Stadion (Inđija)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Indjija57%
×Draw25%
Sindjelic Beograd19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indjija
1.64
Sindjelic Beograd
0.82

Indjija creates 100% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 34 away

creates per match

Indjija
1.48
Sindjelic Beograd
0.74

allows per match

Indjija
0.91
Sindjelic Beograd
1.79

finishing

Indjija+0.00on par
Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indjija ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Indjija or draw
81%
Indjija or Sindjelic Beograd
75%
Draw or Sindjelic Beograd
43%

Winning margin

Indjija wins by 2+
31%
Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Indjija 1+ goals
81%
Indjija 2+ goals
49%
Indjija 3+ goals
23%
Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
56%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
20%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Indjija (draw refunded)
75%
Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indjija at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.91 · 94 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indjija attack 1.48 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.64

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.74 + Indjija defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Indjija scores more
57%
level
25%
Sindjelic Beograd scores more
19%

Indjija at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Indjija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Indjija 0–0 Sindjelic Beograd

Indjija and Sindjelic Beograd drew 0-0 in Prva Liga on March 11, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion (Inđija).