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Sindjelic Beograd vs BSK Borca — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
FT
1 – 1
BSK Borca
BSK Borca
3/11/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 17Stadion FK Sinđelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Sindjelic Beograd45%
×Draw27%
BSK Borca29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sindjelic Beograd
1.42
BSK Borca
1.09

Sindjelic Beograd creates 30% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 58 away

creates per match

Sindjelic Beograd
1.24
BSK Borca
1.16

allows per match

Sindjelic Beograd
1.02
BSK Borca
1.59

finishing

Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par
BSK Borca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sindjelic Beograd ↓

BSK Borca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sindjelic Beograd or draw
71%
Sindjelic Beograd or BSK Borca
73%
Draw or BSK Borca
55%

Winning margin

Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
21%
BSK Borca wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
76%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
41%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
17%
BSK Borca 1+ goals
66%
BSK Borca 2+ goals
30%
BSK Borca 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
61%
BSK Borca (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sindjelic Beograd at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.02 · 49 matches

BSK Borca away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.59 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sindjelic Beograd attack 1.24 + BSK Borca defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

BSK Borca attack 1.16 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sindjelic Beograd scores more
45%
level
27%
BSK Borca scores more
29%

Sindjelic Beograd at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sindjelic Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Sindjelic Beograd 1–1 BSK Borca

Sindjelic Beograd and BSK Borca drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Sinđelić in Beograd.