Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

BSK Borca vs Sindjelic Beograd — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

BSK Borca
BSK Borca
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
8/20/2022Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 2Stadion Vizelj Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

BSK Borca47%
×Draw27%
Sindjelic Beograd26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSK Borca
1.43
Sindjelic Beograd
0.98

BSK Borca creates 46% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 49 away

creates per match

BSK Borca
1.49
Sindjelic Beograd
0.86

allows per match

BSK Borca
1.09
Sindjelic Beograd
1.37

finishing

BSK Borca+0.00on par
Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSK Borca ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

BSK Borca or draw
74%
BSK Borca or Sindjelic Beograd
73%
Draw or Sindjelic Beograd
53%

Winning margin

BSK Borca wins by 2+
23%
Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

BSK Borca 1+ goals
76%
BSK Borca 2+ goals
42%
BSK Borca 3+ goals
17%
Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
62%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
26%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

BSK Borca (draw refunded)
65%
Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSK Borca at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.09 · 57 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSK Borca attack 1.49 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.86 + BSK Borca defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

BSK Borca scores more
47%
level
27%
Sindjelic Beograd scores more
26%

BSK Borca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "BSK Borca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BSK Borca vs Sindjelic Beograd

Sindjelic Beograd beat BSK Borca 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Vizelj Park in Beograd.