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Sinđelić vs Kablovi Zaječar — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Sinđelić
Sinđelić
FT
1 – 0
Kablovi Zaječar
Kablovi Zaječar
8/15/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 1Stadion Mašinac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sinđelić90%
×Draw7%
Kablovi Zaječar3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sinđelić
3.88
Kablovi Zaječar
0.68

Sinđelić creates 471% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sinđelić
1.92
Kablovi Zaječar
0.53

allows per match

Sinđelić
0.82
Kablovi Zaječar
5.84

finishing

Sinđelić+0.00on par
Kablovi Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sinđelić ↓

Kablovi Zaječar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Sinđelić or draw
97%
Sinđelić or Kablovi Zaječar
93%
Draw or Kablovi Zaječar
10%

Winning margin

Sinđelić wins by 2+
76%
Kablovi Zaječar wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Sinđelić 1+ goals
98%
Sinđelić 2+ goals
89%
Sinđelić 3+ goals
72%
Kablovi Zaječar 1+ goals
49%
Kablovi Zaječar 2+ goals
15%
Kablovi Zaječar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sinđelić (draw refunded)
97%
Kablovi Zaječar (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sinđelić at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.82 · 71 matches

Kablovi Zaječar away — creates 0.53, concedes 5.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sinđelić attack 1.92 + Kablovi Zaječar defence 5.84 → ÷2 → 3.88

Kablovi Zaječar attack 0.53 + Sinđelić defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Sinđelić scores more
90%
level
7%
Kablovi Zaječar scores more
3%

Sinđelić at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Sinđelić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sinđelić vs Kablovi Zaječar

Sinđelić beat Kablovi Zaječar 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Mašinac in Niš.