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Kablovi Zaječar vs Sinđelić — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Kablovi Zaječar
Kablovi Zaječar
FT
0 – 8
Sinđelić
Sinđelić
3/7/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 20Stadion FK Kablovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kablovi Zaječar17%
×Draw18%
Sinđelić65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kablovi Zaječar
1.27
Sinđelić
2.58

Sinđelić creates 103% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 72 away

creates per match

Kablovi Zaječar
0.95
Sinđelić
1.32

allows per match

Kablovi Zaječar
3.84
Sinđelić
1.58

finishing

Kablovi Zaječar+0.00on par
Sinđelić+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kablovi Zaječar ↓

Sinđelić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Kablovi Zaječar or draw
35%
Kablovi Zaječar or Sinđelić
82%
Draw or Sinđelić
83%

Winning margin

Kablovi Zaječar wins by 2+
7%
Sinđelić wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Kablovi Zaječar 1+ goals
72%
Kablovi Zaječar 2+ goals
36%
Kablovi Zaječar 3+ goals
14%
Sinđelić 1+ goals
92%
Sinđelić 2+ goals
72%
Sinđelić 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Kablovi Zaječar (draw refunded)
21%
Sinđelić (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kablovi Zaječar at home — creates 0.95, concedes 3.84 · 19 matches

Sinđelić away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kablovi Zaječar attack 0.95 + Sinđelić defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sinđelić attack 1.32 + Kablovi Zaječar defence 3.84 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kablovi Zaječar scores more
17%
level
18%
Sinđelić scores more
65%

Sinđelić at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sinđelić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Kablovi Zaječar 0–8 Sinđelić

Sinđelić beat Kablovi Zaječar 8-0 in Srpska Liga - East on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Kablovi in Zaječar.