Sinđelić 3–0 Jedinstvo Paraćin: Result & Stats

Sinđelić

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Jedinstvo Paraćin

11/15/2025

Srpska Liga - East · East - 14Stadion na Durlanu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Sinđelić57%

×Draw23%

Jedinstvo Paraćin20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SinđelićExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Paraćin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.93

Sinđelić

1.77

Jedinstvo Paraćin

0.93

Sinđelić creates 90% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 92 away

1.92

creates per match

1.04

0.82

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Sinđelić

1.92

Jedinstvo Paraćin

1.04

allows per match

Sinđelić

0.82

Jedinstvo Paraćin

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sinđelić+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sinđelić ↓

Jedinstvo Paraćin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sinđelić or draw

80%

Sinđelić or Jedinstvo Paraćin

77%

Draw or Jedinstvo Paraćin

43%

Winning margin

Sinđelić wins by 2+

32%

Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sinđelić 1+ goals

83%

Sinđelić 2+ goals

53%

Sinđelić 3+ goals

26%

Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals

61%

Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals

24%

Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sinđelić (draw refunded)

74%

Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sinđelić at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.82 · 71 matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.61 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sinđelić attack 1.92 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.77

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.04 + Sinđelić defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sinđelić scores more

57%

level

23%

Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more

20%

Sinđelić at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sinđelić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff