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Jedinstvo Paraćin vs Sinđelić — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jedinstvo Paraćin
Jedinstvo Paraćin
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sinđelić
Sinđelić
10/19/2024Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 11Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin46%
×Draw24%
Sinđelić29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.63
Sinđelić
1.25

Jedinstvo Paraćin creates 30% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 72 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.67
Sinđelić
1.32

allows per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.17
Sinđelić
1.58

finishing

Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par
Sinđelić+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Paraćin ↓

Sinđelić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Paraćin or draw
71%
Jedinstvo Paraćin or Sinđelić
76%
Draw or Sinđelić
54%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+
24%
Sinđelić wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals
80%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals
48%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals
22%
Sinđelić 1+ goals
71%
Sinđelić 2+ goals
36%
Sinđelić 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)
61%
Sinđelić (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Paraćin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

Sinđelić away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.67 + Sinđelić defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.63

Sinđelić attack 1.32 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more
46%
level
24%
Sinđelić scores more
29%

Jedinstvo Paraćin at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jedinstvo Paraćin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jedinstvo Paraćin vs Sinđelić

Jedinstvo Paraćin beat Sinđelić 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Paraćin.