Sinđelić 3–0 Dunav Prahovo: Result & Stats

Sinđelić

FT

3 – 0

Dunav Prahovo

3/16/2024

Srpska Liga - East · East - 18Stadion Mašinac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Sinđelić60%

×Draw22%

Dunav Prahovo18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SinđelićExpected goals in this matchDunav Prahovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

0.94

Sinđelić

1.91

Dunav Prahovo

0.94

Sinđelić creates 103% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 79 away

1.92

creates per match

1.05

0.82

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Sinđelić

1.92

Dunav Prahovo

1.05

allows per match

Sinđelić

0.82

Dunav Prahovo

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sinđelić+0.00on par

Dunav Prahovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sinđelić ↓

Dunav Prahovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sinđelić or draw

82%

Sinđelić or Dunav Prahovo

78%

Draw or Dunav Prahovo

40%

Winning margin

Sinđelić wins by 2+

35%

Dunav Prahovo wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sinđelić 1+ goals

85%

Sinđelić 2+ goals

57%

Sinđelić 3+ goals

30%

Dunav Prahovo 1+ goals

61%

Dunav Prahovo 2+ goals

24%

Dunav Prahovo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sinđelić (draw refunded)

77%

Dunav Prahovo (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sinđelić at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.82 · 71 matches

Dunav Prahovo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.90 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sinđelić attack 1.92 + Dunav Prahovo defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.91

Dunav Prahovo attack 1.05 + Sinđelić defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sinđelić scores more

60%

level

22%

Dunav Prahovo scores more

18%

Sinđelić at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sinđelić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff