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Dunav Prahovo vs Sinđelić — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Dunav Prahovo
Dunav Prahovo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sinđelić
Sinđelić
8/26/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 3Stadion FK Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Dunav Prahovo47%
×Draw24%
Sinđelić28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Prahovo
1.64
Sinđelić
1.21

Dunav Prahovo creates 36% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 72 away

creates per match

Dunav Prahovo
1.69
Sinđelić
1.32

allows per match

Dunav Prahovo
1.09
Sinđelić
1.58

finishing

Dunav Prahovo+0.00on par
Sinđelić+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Prahovo ↓

Sinđelić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dunav Prahovo or draw
72%
Dunav Prahovo or Sinđelić
76%
Draw or Sinđelić
53%

Winning margin

Dunav Prahovo wins by 2+
25%
Sinđelić wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dunav Prahovo 1+ goals
81%
Dunav Prahovo 2+ goals
49%
Dunav Prahovo 3+ goals
23%
Sinđelić 1+ goals
70%
Sinđelić 2+ goals
34%
Sinđelić 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dunav Prahovo (draw refunded)
63%
Sinđelić (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Prahovo at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

Sinđelić away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Prahovo attack 1.69 + Sinđelić defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.64

Sinđelić attack 1.32 + Dunav Prahovo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dunav Prahovo scores more
47%
level
24%
Sinđelić scores more
28%

Dunav Prahovo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dunav Prahovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunav Prahovo vs Sinđelić

Dunav Prahovo beat Sinđelić 3-1 in Srpska Liga - East on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Dunav in Prahovo.