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Simrishamn vs Österlen — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Simrishamn
Simrishamn
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Österlen
Österlen
8/18/2023Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 17Korsavads IC A-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Simrishamn38%
×Draw23%
Österlen39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simrishamn
1.67
Österlen
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 78 away

creates per match

Simrishamn
1.65
Österlen
1.51

allows per match

Simrishamn
1.85
Österlen
1.69

finishing

Simrishamn+0.00on par
Österlen+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simrishamn ↓

Österlen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Simrishamn or draw
61%
Simrishamn or Österlen
77%
Draw or Österlen
62%

Winning margin

Simrishamn wins by 2+
19%
Österlen wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Simrishamn 1+ goals
81%
Simrishamn 2+ goals
50%
Simrishamn 3+ goals
23%
Österlen 1+ goals
81%
Österlen 2+ goals
50%
Österlen 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Simrishamn (draw refunded)
50%
Österlen (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simrishamn at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

Österlen away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.69 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simrishamn attack 1.65 + Österlen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.67

Österlen attack 1.51 + Simrishamn defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Simrishamn scores more
38%
level
23%
Österlen scores more
39%

Österlen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Österlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: Simrishamn 4–1 Österlen

Simrishamn beat Österlen 4-1 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at Korsavads IC A-plan in Simrishamn.