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Österlen vs Simrishamn — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Österlen
Österlen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Simrishamn
Simrishamn
8/17/2024Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 17Skillinge Idrottsplats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Österlen47%
×Draw22%
Simrishamn30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Österlen
1.91
Simrishamn
1.49

Österlen creates 28% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 26 away

creates per match

Österlen
1.78
Simrishamn
1.50

allows per match

Österlen
1.48
Simrishamn
2.04

finishing

Österlen+0.00on par
Simrishamn+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Österlen ↓

Simrishamn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Österlen or draw
70%
Österlen or Simrishamn
78%
Draw or Simrishamn
53%

Winning margin

Österlen wins by 2+
26%
Simrishamn wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Österlen 1+ goals
85%
Österlen 2+ goals
57%
Österlen 3+ goals
30%
Simrishamn 1+ goals
77%
Simrishamn 2+ goals
44%
Simrishamn 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Österlen (draw refunded)
61%
Simrishamn (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Österlen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.48 · 79 matches

Simrishamn away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Österlen attack 1.78 + Simrishamn defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.91

Simrishamn attack 1.50 + Österlen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Österlen scores more
47%
level
22%
Simrishamn scores more
30%

Österlen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Österlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Österlen vs Simrishamn

Österlen and Simrishamn drew 1-1 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Skillinge Idrottsplats in Simrishamn.