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Simrishamn vs Karlskrona — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Simrishamn
Simrishamn
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Karlskrona
Karlskrona
5/4/2024Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 6Korsavads IC A-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Simrishamn34%
×Draw23%
Karlskrona43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simrishamn
1.52
Karlskrona
1.73

Karlskrona creates 14% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 87 away

creates per match

Simrishamn
1.65
Karlskrona
1.61

allows per match

Simrishamn
1.85
Karlskrona
1.40

finishing

Simrishamn+0.00on par
Karlskrona+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simrishamn ↓

Karlskrona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Simrishamn or draw
57%
Simrishamn or Karlskrona
77%
Draw or Karlskrona
66%

Winning margin

Simrishamn wins by 2+
16%
Karlskrona wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Simrishamn 1+ goals
78%
Simrishamn 2+ goals
45%
Simrishamn 3+ goals
20%
Karlskrona 1+ goals
82%
Karlskrona 2+ goals
52%
Karlskrona 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Simrishamn (draw refunded)
44%
Karlskrona (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simrishamn at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

Karlskrona away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.40 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simrishamn attack 1.65 + Karlskrona defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.52

Karlskrona attack 1.61 + Simrishamn defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Simrishamn scores more
34%
level
23%
Karlskrona scores more
43%

Karlskrona at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Karlskrona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Simrishamn vs Karlskrona

Simrishamn and Karlskrona drew 1-1 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Korsavads IC A-plan in Simrishamn.