Karlskrona 3–3 Simrishamn: Result & Stats

Karlskrona

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Simrishamn

6/10/2023

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 11Västra Marks IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Karlskrona55%

×Draw21%

Simrishamn23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarlskronaExpected goals in this matchSimrishamn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.29

Karlskrona

2.08

Simrishamn

1.29

Karlskrona creates 61% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 26 away

2.13

creates per match

1.50

1.08

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Karlskrona

2.13

Simrishamn

1.50

allows per match

Karlskrona

1.08

Simrishamn

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlskrona+0.00on par

Simrishamn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlskrona ↓

Simrishamn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Karlskrona or draw

77%

Karlskrona or Simrishamn

79%

Draw or Simrishamn

45%

Winning margin

Karlskrona wins by 2+

33%

Simrishamn wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Karlskrona 1+ goals

87%

Karlskrona 2+ goals

61%

Karlskrona 3+ goals

34%

Simrishamn 1+ goals

72%

Simrishamn 2+ goals

37%

Simrishamn 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Karlskrona (draw refunded)

70%

Simrishamn (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlskrona at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

Simrishamn away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlskrona attack 2.13 + Simrishamn defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.08

Simrishamn attack 1.50 + Karlskrona defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Karlskrona scores more

55%

level

21%

Simrishamn scores more

23%

Karlskrona at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Karlskrona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff