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Simrishamn vs IFK Trelleborg — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Simrishamn
Simrishamn
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 1
IFK Trelleborg
IFK Trelleborg
6/8/2024Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 11Korsavads IC A-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Simrishamn37%
×Draw23%
IFK Trelleborg40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simrishamn
1.68
IFK Trelleborg
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 45 away

creates per match

Simrishamn
1.65
IFK Trelleborg
1.64

allows per match

Simrishamn
1.85
IFK Trelleborg
1.71

finishing

Simrishamn+0.00on par
IFK Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simrishamn ↓

IFK Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Simrishamn or draw
60%
Simrishamn or IFK Trelleborg
77%
Draw or IFK Trelleborg
63%

Winning margin

Simrishamn wins by 2+
19%
IFK Trelleborg wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Simrishamn 1+ goals
81%
Simrishamn 2+ goals
50%
Simrishamn 3+ goals
24%
IFK Trelleborg 1+ goals
83%
IFK Trelleborg 2+ goals
52%
IFK Trelleborg 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Simrishamn (draw refunded)
48%
IFK Trelleborg (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simrishamn at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

IFK Trelleborg away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simrishamn attack 1.65 + IFK Trelleborg defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.68

IFK Trelleborg attack 1.64 + Simrishamn defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Simrishamn scores more
37%
level
23%
IFK Trelleborg scores more
40%

IFK Trelleborg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "IFK Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Simrishamn vs IFK Trelleborg

IFK Trelleborg beat Simrishamn 5-2 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Korsavads IC A-plan in Simrishamn.