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IFK Trelleborg vs Simrishamn — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

IFK Trelleborg
IFK Trelleborg
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Simrishamn
Simrishamn
5/7/2023Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 6Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

IFK Trelleborg53%
×Draw21%
Simrishamn26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Trelleborg
2.13
Simrishamn
1.46

IFK Trelleborg creates 46% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 26 away

creates per match

IFK Trelleborg
2.22
Simrishamn
1.50

allows per match

IFK Trelleborg
1.41
Simrishamn
2.04

finishing

IFK Trelleborg+0.00on par
Simrishamn+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Trelleborg ↓

Simrishamn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

IFK Trelleborg or draw
74%
IFK Trelleborg or Simrishamn
79%
Draw or Simrishamn
47%

Winning margin

IFK Trelleborg wins by 2+
31%
Simrishamn wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

IFK Trelleborg 1+ goals
88%
IFK Trelleborg 2+ goals
63%
IFK Trelleborg 3+ goals
35%
Simrishamn 1+ goals
77%
Simrishamn 2+ goals
43%
Simrishamn 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

IFK Trelleborg (draw refunded)
67%
Simrishamn (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Trelleborg at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.41 · 46 matches

Simrishamn away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Trelleborg attack 2.22 + Simrishamn defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.13

Simrishamn attack 1.50 + IFK Trelleborg defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

IFK Trelleborg scores more
53%
level
21%
Simrishamn scores more
26%

IFK Trelleborg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "IFK Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IFK Trelleborg vs Simrishamn

IFK Trelleborg beat Simrishamn 3-0 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Vångavallen in Trelleborg.