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Simrishamn vs IFK Malmö — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Simrishamn
Simrishamn
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
IFK Malmö
IFK Malmö
4/30/2023Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 5Korsavads IC A-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Simrishamn44%
×Draw23%
IFK Malmö33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simrishamn
1.82
IFK Malmö
1.54

Simrishamn creates 18% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Simrishamn
1.65
IFK Malmö
1.23

allows per match

Simrishamn
1.85
IFK Malmö
2.00

finishing

Simrishamn+0.00on par
IFK Malmö+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simrishamn ↓

IFK Malmö →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Simrishamn or draw
67%
Simrishamn or IFK Malmö
77%
Draw or IFK Malmö
56%

Winning margin

Simrishamn wins by 2+
24%
IFK Malmö wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Simrishamn 1+ goals
84%
Simrishamn 2+ goals
54%
Simrishamn 3+ goals
27%
IFK Malmö 1+ goals
79%
IFK Malmö 2+ goals
45%
IFK Malmö 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Simrishamn (draw refunded)
57%
IFK Malmö (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simrishamn at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

IFK Malmö away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simrishamn attack 1.65 + IFK Malmö defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.82

IFK Malmö attack 1.23 + Simrishamn defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Simrishamn scores more
44%
level
23%
IFK Malmö scores more
33%

Simrishamn at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Simrishamn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: Simrishamn 2–2 IFK Malmö

Simrishamn and IFK Malmö drew 2-2 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Korsavads IC A-plan in Simrishamn.