IFK Malmö 2–4 Simrishamn: Result & Stats

IFK Malmö

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Simrishamn

8/26/2023

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 18Hyllie IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IFK Malmö33%

×Draw20%

Simrishamn47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK MalmöExpected goals in this matchSimrishamn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

2.21

IFK Malmö

1.83

Simrishamn

2.21

Simrishamn creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

1.62

creates per match

1.50

2.92

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

IFK Malmö

1.62

Simrishamn

1.50

allows per match

IFK Malmö

2.92

Simrishamn

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Malmö+0.00on par

Simrishamn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Malmö ↓

Simrishamn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

IFK Malmö or draw

53%

IFK Malmö or Simrishamn

80%

Draw or Simrishamn

67%

Winning margin

IFK Malmö wins by 2+

17%

Simrishamn wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

IFK Malmö 1+ goals

84%

IFK Malmö 2+ goals

54%

IFK Malmö 3+ goals

28%

Simrishamn 1+ goals

89%

Simrishamn 2+ goals

65%

Simrishamn 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

IFK Malmö (draw refunded)

41%

Simrishamn (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Malmö at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.92 · 13 matches

Simrishamn away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Malmö attack 1.62 + Simrishamn defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.83

Simrishamn attack 1.50 + IFK Malmö defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

IFK Malmö scores more

33%

level

20%

Simrishamn scores more

47%

Simrishamn at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Simrishamn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff